Strategy of scoring as few runs as possible backfires

The Cubs, in an effort to win their first World Series title in one hundred years, adopted the bold strategy of trying to score as few runs as possible.  Alfonso Soriano - one of five Cub players to hit 20 or more home runs this season- led the assault by going 2 for 14 in the three game sweep.

 

 “A lot’s changed since this franchise won its last title,” said fiery manager Lou Piniella, “but you have to stick with what’s successful, and if you look at the statistics from the 1908 season the run production is just a fraction of what it is today.” 

 

Though maintaining the highest run differential in the National League, Piniella, always willing to take a gamble, sought to surprise the surging Los Angeles Dodgers with a hitting display that can only be described as meek.  “So much of this game is mental, and we thought we could catch them off guard by totally abandoning our potent offensive attack,” said Gold Glove winning and all-around nice guy Derrek Lee.  Cubs General Manager Jim Hendry said “Obviously it’s disappointing, but you have to give Lou credit for taking such a daring risk.  By avoiding extra base-hits and hitting nothing but weak grounders and pop-ups he really put the pressure on the Dodger’s defense to make the plays.” 

 

Despite their best effort to replicate the style of play in the Dead Ball era, the Cubs sadly came up short for the 100th straight year.  “You’ve just got to play your game,” Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez claimed.  “With steroids on the decline run production is sure to go down, and then our strategy will come full circle.”  After being outscored 20-6, the Cubs will have to wait another year to see if their bold return to an archaic style of play will be successful.

 

 

 

I Wanna Hear the Song (But Which One?)

The Cubs and I have had a tumultuous relationship over the last couple of years. I’ve always been a Braves fan, but as a kid I liked coming home from school and catching the Cubs on WGN, listening to Harry Caray, and watching as they blew a lead in the 9^th.

But then something happened that turned a casual Cubs fan like me away from the loveable losers. In 2003 they hired Dusty Baker to be their manager. I hate Dusty Baker. He was and is terribly overrated as a manager and he isn’t even good as a broadcaster or studio analyst.

In the 2004 season, the Cubs failed to make the playoffs and Dusty Baker and the team he managed proceeded to place the blame for their failures on WGN broadcasters Chip Caray and Rob Stone. Chip and Stoney were the best broadcast combo in sports at that point and their partnership got broken up because Baker and whinny Cubs players thought that they were being too critical. How about you over paid allegedly talented players and manager just man up and do better rather than assigning blame. And of all the people to blame, they blame the broadcasters? (Here’s some background info on how the Cubs came to blame Stone and Caray during the 2004 season, which led to them eventually leaving the Cubs).

On the bright side, this meant that Chip came to broadcast Braves games with his dad Skip Caray. Obviously this made me happy as a Braves fan, but it also made me angry at the Cubs to the point that I refused to root for them anymore. My grudge against the Cubs was strengthened when they hired Lou Piniella, who I strongly dislike.

However, now that they’re in the playoffs it’s hard not to root for them just a little. And despite the terrible ownership and a manager that I hate, Cubs fans are just plain endearing. This year the Cubs started playing a Steve Goodman song after they win in Wrigley Field. The song, “Go Cubs Go”, is pretty cheesy, but it’s cool to see how fans refuse to leave the stadium after a win so they can sing the song and party in the stands.

But there is another Steve Goodman song that I like. It’s called, “A Dying Cubs Fan’s Last Request”. That song details a life long Cubs fan on his death bed recalling all the misery that his team has brought him. The misery of Cubs fans in just as endearing as their jovial celebrations after a win.

And that’s the ying and the yang of the Cubs. If they win, I’ll feel good for a tortured fan base. If they lose, I’ll feel good knowing that the Cubs are cursed and will forever be the loveable losers. Prior to last night I was ebbing toward the ‘I want them to win so I can hear the song’ side of the Cubs, but after watching Manny dismantle them with an absurd homerun off his shoe laces I think it’s more likely to have the curse reinforced.

So Cubs fans, just embrace it. And start telling MLB that you’re not going to listen to their demands anymore. Why are the Cubs playoff games at night? The Cubs don’t play at night, they play day games. But MLB knows Cubs games will get better ratings so they have to play at night while Tampa gets the day games even though they play in a dome (the worst stadium in baseball).

What I’m saying is this: I want to hear the happy song, but I think I’d rather have the old school Cubs in their ivy covered burial ground.

Week 6 of Total Consciousness College football Picks

Jeff has been tabulating the scores and is now including the amount of points you got last week (in parentheses) along with the total points. Last week we all made basically the same picks but Mao and Lauren gambled better than everyone since the games that they missed were all for low point values. Well, except for the Florida loss, which took all of us by surprise. Anyway, congrats to Lauren for getting the most points last week, it was as if you squeezed blood from a stone considering all that went on. With that said, here’s how everything stands so far:

Mao 133 (17), Jeff 115 (13), Trey 115 (1), Jared 111 (11), Lauren 96 (19), Derrick 87 (0), Jim 85 (11).

Now for the slate of games for week 6:

Our 3 Teams

Duke @ Georgia Tech

Tennessee v Northern Illinois

College Gameday Game

Auburn (13) @ Vandy (19)

Rivals (Georgia is off to attend their own funeral)

Florida (12) @ Arkansas

Unc v UConn (24)

Fillers

Oregon St @ Utah (15)

South Carolina @ Ole Miss

Florida State @ Miami

Oregon (23) @ USC (9)

Ohio State (14) @ Wisconsin (18)

Note that the Oregon State and Utah game is on Thursday, so get your picks in before 9:00pm.

Anybody Can Have a Bad Century

Well, the regular season is (for the most part) over, and the playoff schedule is set.  This turned out to be a great season for a number of reasons.  Primarily, for me, the Cubs were the best team in the National League.  Other highlights: Rays win their first division title, Yankees are not in the playoffs, divisional and wild card races coming down to the last game of the season, and another hilarious collapse by the Mets. 

So now we come to the playoffs, and I think it should be a very interesting and exciting postseason.  Here are my predictions for how this October will end (keep in mind I really don’t follow statistics and this is just the musing of a longtime fan of the game).

American League

Divisional Series

Tampa Bay beats Minnesota/Chicago in 4 - Since this series won’t be set until possibly Tuesday night, there’s not much sense making an in depth prediction.  However, I think with the way the Rays have played all season and the pressures they have faced make them the superior team in any series.  If they play Chicago, that means the Sox had to play two extra games and will have travelled the night before the Division series opener, so that has to give the Rays an edge.  If they play the Twins, I just think the Rays simply outplay them and advance to the NLCS.

Los Angeles of Anaheim beats Boston in 5 - The Red Sox have had the Angels number in the playoffs so far this decade.  Also, the Red Sox never seem to worry when they’re down and seemingly out of a playoff series.  However, with Big Papi not at 100% and  Josh Beckett being sidelined until Game 3, and the way the Angels ran rough shod over the opposition in the regular season, I’ve got to pick the Angels to finally overcome Red Sox Nation.

ALCS

Tampa Beats Los Angeles of Anaheim in 7 - I’ve just got to pull for Tampa.  I’ve been tremendously impressed with what they’ve been able to accomplish this season.  I think this will be an intense series that pits the big names of LA against the future of the league that is the Tampa Bay Rays.  I expect the Angels, who seemingly clinched the division in July, to fare much the same as the Mariners in 2001.  They had such an overwhelming lead in their division that they could basically just sit back and wait for the playoffs, and that rarely has good results (2006 Detriot Tigers, 2007 Colorado Rockies).  I give the edge to Tampa.

National League

Divisional Series

Philadelphia beats Milwaukee in 4 - Unless CC Sabathia pitches every game in this series, I don’t see the Brew Crew as having much of a shot in this one.  I have a tremendous amount of respect for what that team has accomplished, but I doubt they have enough left in the tank to beat a team as good as the Phillies.  For one, Ben Sheets has been injured, and two, as astoundingly good as CC has been, you have to believe that 4 starts (assuming he starts game 1) on three days rest will take its toll.  And Philadelphia has such a good offense, along with pitching machine Jamie Moyer that the edge goes to them.

Chicago beats Los Angeles in 4 - I’m very tempted to predict a Cubs sweep, but I fear of angering the baseball gods with my hubris.  LA is definitely the weakest team this postseason.  Granted, they have been playing well of late and appear set to get Nomar and Furcal back, but I’m just not seeing a way they compete with the Cubs (unless of course the baseball gods have a sense of irony and Greg Maddux pitches a perfect game against the team that wouldn’t resign him after his Cy Young season).  As shaky as Zambrano has been lately, minus the no-hitter, I think he rises to the occasion in these playoffs.  And if he’s not so hot, the Cubs have what has to be one of the best bullpens in the game.

NLCS

Chicago beats Philadelphia in 6 - Why? Because I’m a Cubs fan!  I think this series will show just how good the Dempster-Zambrano-Harden combo really is.  Both the Cubs and the Phils have outstanding offenses, so this one will probably come down to pitching, and the Cubs definitely have the advantage in that department.  Lidge has been lights out this year, but I can definitely see the ghost of Pujols coming to haunt him. 

World Series

Chicago beats Tampa in 6 - As if you didn’t see this coming.  In this series the magic has to run out for one team, and it’d be nice to see someone else suffering for a change.  The question was raised as to which victory would be better for baseball.  That’s a tough one to answer, and to be perfectly honest, I’d have to say the Rays.  The Cubs, despite their reputation, are no different than the Yanks and the Sawks in that they are a big market team with an astronomical payroll.  If the Rays can pull off a World Series victory in such a small market and such a low payroll, look for the game to change dramatically. 

However, this series would definitely favor the Cubs.  And there’s really one reason: Lou Piniella.  Say what you want about him but he is a baseball genius.  This season he has consistently placed the Cubs players in the positions they are most likely to succeed, and his players have responded to that.  The Jim Edmonds/Reed Johnson platoon in center has worked brilliantly, as has the Fontenot/DeRosa combo at second.  In any game you can really only be sure of 3 spots in the lineup, Soriano leading off, then Lee/Ramirez at 3 and 4.  So his players are always on their toes regarding where they are in the order, and I think that strategy has been extremely effective.  And, as great a story as the Rays are, the Cubs have the deeper bench and bullpen.  Furthermore, the Cubs would likely have almost home field advantage when in Tampa, which is where Lou is from and currently resides. 

My bias is obvious, of course, but I think I speak to the truth.  For all the talk of curses and centuries without a title, this Cubs team has not bought into the hype.   The most important statistic this season for the Cubs, in my opinion, has been comeback wins, of which they have over 40.  Simply put, these Cubs play to the end.  They don’t believe that if they are down by 4 in the 9th that they are going to lose.  If there ever was a team to put those curses to rest, this is the one, and as they say in Chicago, “anybody can have a bad century.”

Go Cubs!!

PAC-10 Pains

Allow me to drop some King James (the Bible, that is, not the ’savior’ of the NBA) inspired truth bombs on you, and announce that, verily, the Pharisees (football pundits everywhere, especially ESPN) did try to name their own ruler (USC), attracting the wrath of the football gods, who smited the Trojans with great anger.

Of course, the Beavers tried to give the game away starting at the end of the third quarter, but that just goes to show you how dumb the PAC-10 really is.

Trey called me at one point and said, “I just thought I’d let you know that the Trojans are playing the Beavers, and thus the color commentary just got that much funnier.” Indeed, when the announcers said ”looks like the Trojans finally found a hole in the Beaver’s defense big enough to bust through”, I had to excuse myself from the living room to change my tee-tee panties.

Coherent thoughts: First off, I wasn’t sure that Oregon State was going to win this game until five minutes after that game had been called. I’m not sure if they’re primary tailback, Jacquizz Rodgers, was tired or hurt or what, but the entire first half they plowed up the middle (’Beavers ravaging the middle of that Trojan defense’ is not a quote any man not looking for kids wants to hear) with great success. They came out in the second half, got shut down for a couple series, and it’s like they’re coach thought “Holy shit I’ve got PAC-10 pass wacky standards to live up to!” I understand that he was trying to spread the defense back out in order to make those inside runs effective again, but even after they did that, and the inside run was back, OSU’s quarterback looked like he was trying to throw interceptions on every other play. Ridiculous.

Rodgers, by the way, was a stud. If you haven’t seen the replay, there was one run where he was fending off a tackle, and all his weight was hinged on his ankles, his helmet was pulled off his head, and he didn’t go down. He righted his tiny skiff, changed directions, and was sprinting for the end zone when the referees blew the whistle. The announcers seemed to think they play was called dead because the refs though Rodgers’ knee was down, not because his helmet flew off. Anyone have any insight on that? All I know is, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player have his helmet come off during a play and stay on his feet and continue to play! My first son shall be named Jacquizze.

A quick lesson on the difference between angering the football gods, and invoking bad football karma. When the OSU fans started to climb onto the sideline when there was still more than two minutes left in the game? That drew the ire of the football gods, who quickly allowed USC to score a touchdown and make the OSU fans remember that they are not in charge of the game. However, Oregon State’s players contracted some bad football karma by dumping their coach with Gatorade long before the game was over. The coach’s anger at their foolishness might have been great enough to displace such negative karma, but I doubt it. Look for Oregon State to lose to Wash. St, or the lowly Huskies of Washington as repayment.

What does this do for the National Championship race? Clearly, we’re reminded, as some asshole as ESPN or CBS Sportsline will parrot soon enough, that this is a ‘marathon, not a sprint’. If we’re going to use track and field analogies, it’s more like a 4×400. Each leg represents your offense, your defense, your coaching, and how much luck you team experiences throughout the season. Each part carries their load. What I can only hope for is that by the end of the season there will be at least three, and up to five or six teams with one loss; let’s throw in an undefeated BYU or Utah just for fun. Who gets in? Who’s left out? If the collapse of the financial system doesn’t implode the United States, then perhaps five one-loss college football teams all vying for a spot in the national championship game will…

The Merkle Curse

Today, September 23 2008, is the 100 year anniversary of what I believe is erroneously called “The Merkle Boner.”

Let me set the scene. The Cubs are playing the New York Giants at the Polo Grounds on this very day in 1908. These two teams were in a tight race for the National League pennant and as such this head to head matchup was of great importance. In the bottom of the 9th inning with the game tied 1-1, Giants First Baseman Fred Merkle came up to the plate facing 2 outs and a man on first. Merkle, who the Giants fans did not like due to his poor hitting, delivered with a clutch single that sent the runner on first to third base. The following batter also delivered a 2 out single, which sent the game winning run across home plate, who as I mention was in scoring position due to Merkle’s single, and sent Merkle to second.

But here’s where everything went absolutely haywire. The Giants fans rushed the field to celebrate their victory. In the chaos, it is alleged that Merkle walked over to the Giants clubhouse without touching second base (by the way, that was commonplace back in the day because most players weren’t aware of the rule that everyone on the basepads has to be safe for the winning run to count and umpires didn’t ever call it). Johnny Evers, the second baseman for the Cubs, proceeded to retrieve the ball and tagged second base. With fans all over the field celebrating with their team, umpire Hank O’Day called Merkle out at second which negated the game winning run. Since the fans were all over the field it was decided that the game could not be resumed and so the game was declared a tie.

This proved costly as at the end of the season the Cubs and Giants had the exact same record. They therefore played a one game playoff to see who would get the National League pennant and therein get the opportunity to play in the World Series. The Cubs won that game and went on to win the World Series. They have not won a World Series since then.

How is this a curse? Well Merkle went to his death bed claiming to have touched second base. Others in attendance claim that the actual game ball was thrown into the stands and therefore the ball that Evers held as he tagged second base was not valid. Either situation would mean that O’Day’s call was incorrect and thereby robbed the Giants of a win that would have prevented them from having to participate in the one game playoff that they lost.

Of course you’d know all of this if you’d watched Keith Olbermann last night. You’d also know that Olbermann said he was going to be in attendance tonight as the Cubs played the Mets in New York on the anniversary of this controversial play. And what happened tonight? The Cubs were leading 2-0 in the 5th inning when Johan Santana came to the plate and broke his bat as he hit a pitch. The barrel of the bat spun out beyond the pitcher’s mound (freaking maple bats!). The ball, traveling less quickly than the bat, was headed in the same direction. An easy ground ball right? Wrong, because the ball proceeds to hit the broken bat and bounces away from the infield players. Santana is safe at first and the Mets rally to beat the Cubs.

It makes me wonder: if Merkle actually did touch second base, then the Cubs won their last World Series in 1908 thanks to an invalid call (a call made by Hank O’Day who later became a manager for the Cubs) that has made Fred Merkle infamous. And wouldn’t it be the ultimate redemption for Merkle if the Cubs failed to win the World Series in a season in which on the 100 year anniversary of his play the Cubs lose due to a fluke play? Wouldn’t that make you think that the Merkle play has jinxed the Cubbies because Merkle was right but gets viewed historically as a ‘boner’, and so karma has been punishing the Cubs for winning a World Series due in part to the defamation of one Fred Merkle?

All I know is if the Cubs don’t win it all this year, then I’m going to attribute it to a karmic debt they owe to Fred Merkle, who actually did touch second base.

Week 5 of Total Consciousness College Football Picks

Last week will be hard to top since there were tons of great games topped off with an amazing LSU victory over Auburn. The best part of that game, by the way, was the sideline reporter pointing out that the LSU quarterback that got knocked out of the game with a concussion (pun intended) ‘looks like he’s been drinking but we know he hasn’t been because he’s a Mormon.’ Great reporting, remind me again, which one are you, Woodward or Bernstein?

Of course all the excitement of the games was augmented by the fact that I only missed two of my picks and racked up 41 points, moving me into second place. Game on bitches! Here are the standings so far (note that last week I screwed up and switched Derrick and Jared’s scores, so last week Jared had 73 and Derrick had 87):

Mao 116, Trey 114, McFeely 102, Jared 100, Derrick 87, Lauren 77, and Jeems 74

And here are the games for this week (I added the rankings in parentheses):

Our 3 Teams (Georgia Tech is off this week)

Duke v Virginia

Tennessee @ Auburn (15)

College Gameday Game

Alabama (8) @ Georgia (3)

Rivals (Georgia is in the Gameday game)

Florida (4) v Ole Miss

unc @ Miami

Fillers

Minnesota @ Ohio State (14)

Maryland @ Clemson (20)

Colorado @ Florida State

South Florida (13) @ NC State

Illinois (22) @ Penn State (12)

No Thursday game so just get the picks in before noon on Saterday.

The Future of Sports Media

Last night Mike (mao) and I engaged in a 45 minute question and answer session about sports (the audio can be heard at his blog The AD Hall, which is linked from The Stormy Present Sports, and I encourage you to check it out).  In the course of the conversation we eventually got to the subject of the current state of sports media and whether it was likely to change.  The two main thrusts of that segment were whether or not ESPN is solely to blame and what we thought the future might bring.

I, for one, do not think ESPN can be the lone scapegoat.  While I often tire of the ad nauseum coverage certain events, and in many cases non-events (Brett Fav-rah), receive, they are certainly not the only guilty party.  I do think, however, that ESPN is at fault for creating such a sports marketplace.  They became such a dominant force that other networks had to expand their own sports coverage, which led to ESPN amping up their efforts as well, and thus a viscious cycle was born.  And now we pretty much just have a bunch of idiot talking heads (I’m looking at you Skip Bayless) who are really just spouting out their own opinions and not doing anything related to actual sports coverage.  So the question now becomes, what is to come of sports coverage? 

Obviously the printed media is on its deathbed, so that option is out.  My thought is that blogs just might be the future of sports coverage.  As Mike points out, some bloggers now have access to locker rooms in certain venues.  I think if blogging can gain enough legitimacy it might be a viable means of true sports coverage.  Furthermore, since blogging isn’t tied to any particular media outlet, the sheer number of blogs would create a competetiveness that would more than likely increase quality.  I know it might sound silly to apply capitalist concepts to blogging, but I think it’s an interesting idea.  I, for one, get incredibly tired of ESPN’s constant coverage of the Yanks and the Sawks.  But that’s not really a problem for blogs.  If you only write about the Yanks and the Sawks I’m not going to visit your site.  So, potentially, I can see blogging taking the place of the unwieldy behemoth that is modern sports coverage.

Now, none of these ideas are really well thought out, and there’s really no telling what the future will bring (except most likely a real life version of ESPN 8 “the ocho”).  But I think that most of us can agree that most sports media outlets today are almost parodies of themselves, and that a change would not be a bad thing.  I just wanted to broach this topic and see what the rest of you think.

Week 4 of Total Consciousness College Football Picks

Last week was a tough one for everybody, but Jim earned the dubious distinction of being the first person miss so many that he actually accrued negative points for his week 3 picks. The standings thus far are as follows:

Mao 97, McFeely 95, Jared 87, Trey 83, Derrick 73, Jeems 56, Lauren 46 (only played 2 weeks), Brian 25 (only played one week)

This is a big week as there are 6 really good games going on and the fillers we’ve chosen are real toss ups. So without further adieu, here are the games for Week 4:

Our Teams (Duke is off to prepare for UVA)

Georgia Tech v Mississippi State

Tennessee v Florida

College Gameday Game

LSU @ Auburn

Rivals (Florida is playing Tennessee)

unc v Virginia Tech

Georgia @ Arizona State

Fillers

Wake Forest @ Florida State

ECU @ NC State

West Virginia @ Colorado

Notre Dame @ Michigan State

UCF @ Boston College

Since the WVU @ CU game is on Thursday all picks have to be in before 8:30 tomorrow.

P.S. Duke is 2-1

P.P.S. Maryland beating Cal should shut up all those ‘the Pac 10 is a great conference’ people. The SEC is the best, as always, and the Big 12 is number two.

 

Week 3 of Total Conciousness College Football Picks

Sorry for the delay in posting this. First things first, who the hell is the person that made their picks last week under the name anonymous? Here are the scores through the first two weeks of the season assuming that last week’s picks by anonymous were Jared (but if that is incorrect let us know):

Jeems 72, Derrick 70, McFeely 66, Mao 62, Trey 60, Jared 60, Lauren 31, Brian 25

And now the slate games for week three and let me warn you there are at least 6 toss ups:

3 Teams

Duke v Navy

Tennessee v UAB

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech

 

College Gameday Game

Ohio St @ USC

 

Rivals(Florida is off after running up the score on Miami [kinda douchey of them])

Unc @ Rutgers

Georgia @ South Carolina

 

Fillers

Kansas @ South Florida (two teams with great football tradition dating all the way back to last year)

Michigan @ Notre Dame (arrogant assholes v arrogant assholes)

UCLA @ BYU (people whose religion forbids caffeine against people who live the epitome of a Starbucks lifestyle)

Virginia @ UConn